Setting description

Taxel therapies more effective in the TEfus+ biomarker signature

Simulations setting

PFS distributions


Treatment effects

By subgroup:

subtype var Other Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
— param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
–+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 1, hr = 1
-+- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
-++ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 1, hr = 1
+– param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
+-+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 1, hr = 1
++- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
+++ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 1, hr = 1


By signature:

signature var Other Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.019, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 49.6, median = 40.5 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.27, hr = 0.73 af = 1, hr = 1
TP53- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.019, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 49.6, median = 40.5 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.27, hr = 0.73 af = 1, hr = 1
TP53+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.019, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 49.6, median = 40.5 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.27, hr = 0.73 af = 1, hr = 1
DRD+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.019, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 49.6, median = 40.5 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.27, hr = 0.73 af = 1, hr = 1
TEfus+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 1, hr = 1

Errors and power


graduation (counts and proportions):
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 1 66 3
TP53- 8 104 11
TP53+ 7 109 7
DRD+ 4 61 6
TEfus+ 1 338 3
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0.002 0.132 0.006
TP53- 0.016 0.208 0.022
TP53+ 0.014 0.218 0.014
DRD+ 0.008 0.122 0.012
TEfus+ 0.002 0.676 0.006
futility (counts and proportions):
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 78 6 70
TP53- 232 30 234
TP53+ 198 23 210
DRD+ 119 11 202
TEfus+ 280 1 307
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0.156 0.012 0.140
TP53- 0.464 0.060 0.468
TP53+ 0.396 0.046 0.420
DRD+ 0.238 0.022 0.404
TEfus+ 0.560 0.002 0.614
max sample size (counts and proportions):
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0 0 0
TP53- 48 89 36
TP53+ 9 20 2
DRD+ 0 0 0
TEfus+ 0 0 0
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0.000 0.000 0.000
TP53- 0.096 0.178 0.072
TP53+ 0.018 0.040 0.004
DRD+ 0.000 0.000 0.000
TEfus+ 0.000 0.000 0.000


Errors & power

The overall error was 0.178.
The corresponding errors separate for the different treatments were:

Hormone_therapies   Taxel_therapies         Niraparib 
            0.040             0.092             0.054

The overall power was 0.676.
The corresponding power separate for the different treatments were:

Hormone_therapies   Taxel_therapies         Niraparib 
            0.000             0.676             0.000

Median results at the end of the trial

By signature:
signature var Control Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all graduation 0 1 66 3
futility 0 78 6 70
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 702 (605, 766) 300 (156, 450) 377 (209, 521) 282 (155, 438)
n_unique 702 (605, 766) 300 (156, 450) 377 (209, 521) 282 (155, 438)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (39, 60) 60 (44, 60) 60 (48, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 31 (15, 56) 32 (15, 54) 34 (18, 56)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.2 (0.02, 0.64) 0.98 (0.78, 1) 0.18 (0.02, 0.67)
rate 0.019 (0.018, 0.021) 0.021 (0.019, 0.024) 0.016 (0.015, 0.018) 0.022 (0.019, 0.025)
TP53- graduation 0 8 104 11
futility 0 232 30 234
max_n 0 48 89 36
n 381 (325, 428) 170 (56, 298) 196 (84, 302) 150 (60, 281)
n_unique 381 (325, 428) 170 (56, 298) 196 (84, 302) 150 (60, 281)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (21, 60) 60 (27, 60) 60 (21, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 30 (18, 54) 32 (18, 54) 30 (18, 50)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.31 (0.03, 0.76) 0.9 (0.51, 1) 0.28 (0.04, 0.77)
rate 0.02 (0.018, 0.022) 0.022 (0.019, 0.027) 0.017 (0.015, 0.02) 0.022 (0.019, 0.026)
TP53+ graduation 0 7 109 7
futility 0 198 23 210
max_n 0 9 20 2
n 319 (262, 356) 130 (52, 227) 177 (77, 269) 124 (53, 216)
n_unique 319 (262, 356) 130 (52, 227) 177 (77, 269) 124 (53, 216)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (28, 60) 60 (27, 60) 60 (25, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 36 (24, 55) 30 (18, 53) 34 (23, 51)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.24 (0.03, 0.67) 0.94 (0.62, 1) 0.24 (0.02, 0.68)
rate 0.019 (0.017, 0.021) 0.021 (0.018, 0.026) 0.016 (0.013, 0.019) 0.022 (0.018, 0.027)
DRD+ graduation 0 4 61 6
futility 0 119 11 202
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 191 (150, 224) 74 (37, 127) 84 (41, 139) 90 (51, 140)
n_unique 191 (150, 224) 74 (37, 127) 84 (41, 139) 90 (51, 140)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (44, 60) 60 (49, 60) 60 (26, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 46 (33, 56) 42 (28, 55) 34 (21, 54)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.28 (0.04, 0.71) 0.9 (0.48, 0.99) 0.22 (0.03, 0.7)
rate 0.019 (0.016, 0.022) 0.021 (0.018, 0.027) 0.015 (0.012, 0.018) 0.022 (0.019, 0.027)
TEfus+ graduation 0 1 338 3
futility 0 280 1 307
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 247 (177, 295) 82 (50, 165) 141 (64, 224) 80 (50, 159)
n_unique 247 (177, 295) 82 (50, 165) 141 (64, 224) 80 (50, 159)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 55 (29, 60) 47 (24, 60) 49 (23, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 40 (26, 56) 38 (22, 55) 35 (21, 54)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.1 (0, 0.46) 1 (0.96, 1) 0.08 (0, 0.41)
rate 0.017 (0.015, 0.019) 0.021 (0.018, 0.027) 0.01 (0.009, 0.012) 0.022 (0.018, 0.027)


By subgroup combinations:
subtype var Control Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
— graduation 0 257 170 254
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 48 88 36
n 217 (177, 249) 92 (29, 193) 104 (37, 191) 74 (19, 177)
n_unique 217 (177, 249) 92 (29, 193) 104 (37, 191) 74 (19, 177)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.48 (0.09, 0.87) 0.53 (0.1, 0.88) 0.48 (0.1, 0.87)
rate 0.021 (0.019, 0.024) 0.022 (0.018, 0.029) 0.021 (0.018, 0.027) 0.022 (0.017, 0.029)
–+ graduation 0 380 357 379
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 42 72 33
n 58 (34, 74) 18 (7, 48) 34 (14, 61) 15 (6, 47)
n_unique 58 (34, 74) 18 (7, 48) 34 (14, 61) 15 (6, 47)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.26 (0.05, 0.69) 0.92 (0.6, 1) 0.27 (0.06, 0.69)
rate 0.017 (0.013, 0.022) 0.022 (0.015, 0.037) 0.011 (0.007, 0.016) 0.023 (0.014, 0.037)
-+- graduation 0 232 156 234
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 9 20 2
n 140 (114, 160) 60 (16, 127) 64 (25, 134) 51 (14, 117)
n_unique 140 (114, 160) 60 (16, 127) 64 (25, 134) 51 (14, 117)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.51 (0.1, 0.89) 0.48 (0.1, 0.88) 0.49 (0.11, 0.88)
rate 0.021 (0.018, 0.024) 0.022 (0.017, 0.031) 0.022 (0.018, 0.029) 0.021 (0.017, 0.031)
-++ graduation 0 385 381 386
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 8 17 2
n 99 (60, 121) 27 (9, 76) 59 (26, 103) 22 (8, 66)
n_unique 99 (60, 121) 27 (9, 76) 59 (26, 103) 22 (8, 66)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.21 (0.03, 0.59) 0.97 (0.74, 1) 0.22 (0.04, 0.62)
rate 0.016 (0.013, 0.021) 0.022 (0.016, 0.032) 0.01 (0.008, 0.014) 0.023 (0.016, 0.036)
+– graduation 0 301 206 329
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 47 87 35
n 57 (42, 71) 21 (5, 49) 23 (6, 50) 24 (10, 54)
n_unique 57 (42, 71) 21 (5, 49) 23 (6, 50) 24 (10, 54)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.47 (0.15, 0.87) 0.5 (0.14, 0.85) 0.48 (0.1, 0.88)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.027) 0.022 (0.014, 0.035) 0.021 (0.014, 0.034) 0.023 (0.016, 0.034)
+-+ graduation 0 394 370 414
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 41 72 32
n 51 (31, 67) 15 (4, 44) 23 (7, 47) 19 (10, 44)
n_unique 51 (31, 67) 15 (4, 44) 23 (7, 47) 19 (10, 44)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.28 (0.05, 0.69) 0.89 (0.55, 0.99) 0.25 (0.04, 0.69)
rate 0.017 (0.013, 0.022) 0.023 (0.015, 0.038) 0.01 (0.006, 0.015) 0.023 (0.016, 0.033)
++- graduation 0 280 200 329
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 9 19 2
n 43 (32, 53) 17 (5, 36) 16 (5, 36) 19 (7, 42)
n_unique 43 (32, 53) 17 (5, 36) 16 (5, 36) 19 (7, 42)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.48 (0.16, 0.84) 0.45 (0.16, 0.85) 0.47 (0.13, 0.85)
rate 0.021 (0.015, 0.027) 0.022 (0.014, 0.041) 0.022 (0.013, 0.037) 0.023 (0.016, 0.035)
+++ graduation 0 397 398 419
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 8 16 2
n 40 (24, 53) 12 (4, 34) 16 (5, 36) 15 (8, 36)
n_unique 40 (24, 53) 12 (4, 34) 16 (5, 36) 15 (8, 36)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.32 (0.06, 0.69) 0.84 (0.47, 0.97) 0.29 (0.05, 0.67)
rate 0.017 (0.012, 0.023) 0.022 (0.013, 0.041) 0.01 (0.005, 0.018) 0.023 (0.016, 0.035)

Median results over time

Signatures:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates


Subgroup combinations:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates

Median results at stop

By signature

Graduation:
signature var Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all count 1 66 3
time_stop 22 (22, 22) 36 (18, 54) 23 (19, 33)
n_trt 166 (166, 166) 246 (126, 414) 138 (105, 176)
n_control 252 (252, 252) 402 (182, 642) 243 (206, 369)
post_p 0.97 (0.97, 0.97) 0.99 (0.96, 1) 0.94 (0.9, 0.96)
order 1 (1, 1) 2 (1, 4) 1 (1, 1.8)
TP53- count 8 104 11
time_stop 20 (15, 25) 36 (20, 54) 24 (12, 38)
n_trt 78 (63, 99) 139 (73, 252) 79 (60, 160)
n_control 122 (95, 158) 218 (116, 337) 143 (71, 228)
post_p 0.93 (0.88, 0.98) 0.98 (0.92, 1) 0.94 (0.91, 0.98)
order 1 (1, 1.3) 2 (1, 4) 1 (1, 3)
TP53+ count 7 109 7
time_stop 34 (24, 43) 35 (21, 55) 44 (16, 50)
n_trt 92 (53, 159) 115 (65, 206) 93 (55, 161)
n_control 196 (112, 235) 181 (101, 282) 200 (83, 252)
post_p 0.95 (0.94, 0.98) 0.98 (0.92, 1) 0.96 (0.9, 0.98)
order 1 (1, 2.4) 2 (1, 4) 2 (1, 4)
DRD+ count 4 61 6
time_stop 54 (45, 57) 43 (28, 55) 34 (21, 56)
n_trt 74 (62, 117) 66 (53, 117) 105 (58, 146)
n_control 192 (143, 197) 141 (88, 183) 101 (56, 185)
post_p 0.94 (0.92, 0.98) 0.98 (0.92, 1) 0.95 (0.93, 0.98)
order 2.5 (1.3, 4.4) 2 (1, 3) 1 (1, 2)
TEfus+ count 1 338 3
time_stop 22 (22, 22) 38 (22, 55) 22 (17, 29)
n_trt 60 (60, 60) 122 (64, 199) 62 (52, 91)
n_control 83 (83, 83) 163 (92, 242) 80 (61, 122)
post_p 0.95 (0.95, 0.95) 0.99 (0.95, 1) 0.96 (0.94, 0.98)
order 2 (2, 2) 1 (1, 2) 1 (1, 1.8)
Futility:
signature var Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all count 78 6 70
time_stop 31 (15, 56) 8 (6, 11) 34 (19, 56)
n_trt 154 (72, 262) 60 (52, 76) 160 (98, 269)
n_control 360 (158, 644) 86 (72, 116) 404 (216, 643)
post_p 0.03 (0, 0.12) 0.2 (0.1, 0.25) 0.03 (0, 0.09)
order 3 (1, 6) 1 (1, 1) 4 (1, 7)
TP53- count 232 30 234
time_stop 31 (18, 54) 24 (16, 43) 30 (18, 51)
n_trt 96 (52, 199) 84 (53, 154) 91 (53, 189)
n_control 196 (104, 345) 144 (89, 284) 188 (111, 327)
post_p 0.13 (0.03, 0.26) 0.14 (0.05, 0.24) 0.14 (0.04, 0.27)
order 2 (1, 5) 1 (1, 4.1) 2 (1, 5)
TP53+ count 198 23 210
time_stop 36 (24, 55) 20 (13, 30) 33 (23, 51)
n_trt 84 (52, 153) 67 (53, 115) 79 (51, 144)
n_control 196 (117, 308) 105 (64, 163) 176 (109, 274)
post_p 0.12 (0.03, 0.26) 0.14 (0.07, 0.26) 0.11 (0.03, 0.24)
order 3 (1, 6) 1 (1, 2.8) 3 (1, 5.1)
DRD+ count 119 11 202
time_stop 46 (33, 56) 40 (29, 49) 34 (21, 54)
n_trt 61 (50, 106) 56 (50, 77) 69 (50, 104)
n_control 149 (98, 190) 128 (88, 147) 108 (66, 177)
post_p 0.1 (0.02, 0.27) 0.18 (0.07, 0.29) 0.13 (0.03, 0.25)
order 4 (2, 6) 4 (2, 7) 3 (1, 5)
TEfus+ count 280 1 307
time_stop 40 (26, 56) 14 (14, 14) 35 (21, 54)
n_trt 70 (51, 128) 50 (50, 50) 68 (50, 133)
n_control 175 (107, 253) 49 (49, 49) 150 (88, 237)
post_p 0.1 (0.02, 0.24) 0.26 (0.26, 0.26) 0.1 (0.02, 0.24)
order 3 (1, 6) 2 (2, 2) 3 (1, 5)


By subgroup combinations

Graduation:
signature treatment var — –+ -+- -++ +– +-+ ++- +++
all Hormone_therapies count 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
time 22 (22, 22) 22 (22, 22) 22 (22, 22) 22 (22, 22) 22 (22, 22) 22 (22, 22) 22 (22, 22) 22 (22, 22)
n 72 (72, 72) 18 (18, 18) 23 (23, 23) 14 (14, 14) 8 (8, 8) 7 (7, 7) 13 (13, 13) 11 (11, 11)
post_p 0.94 (0.94, 0.94) 0.58 (0.58, 0.58) 0.58 (0.58, 0.58) 0.7 (0.7, 0.7) 0.68 (0.68, 0.68) 0.7 (0.7, 0.7) 0.66 (0.66, 0.66) 0.64 (0.64, 0.64)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.011 (0.011, 0.011) 0.013 (0.013, 0.013) 0.013 (0.013, 0.013) 0.007 (0.007, 0.007) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.008 (0.008, 0.008)
Taxel_therapies count 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66
time 36 (18, 54) 36 (18, 54) 36 (18, 54) 36 (18, 54) 36 (18, 54) 36 (18, 54) 36 (18, 54) 36 (18, 54)
n 81 (36, 156) 23 (14, 46) 41 (24, 84) 36 (22, 78) 15 (4, 38) 16 (5, 31) 9 (4, 28) 10 (4, 22)
post_p 0.71 (0.59, 0.94) 0.85 (0.62, 0.96) 0.69 (0.58, 0.89) 0.87 (0.63, 0.98) 0.63 (0.57, 0.88) 0.73 (0.57, 0.92) 0.65 (0.56, 0.84) 0.69 (0.56, 0.93)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.016 (0.01, 0.02) 0.008 (0, 0.015) 0.016 (0.01, 0.022) 0.007 (0.004, 0.011) 0.012 (0, 0.02) 0.005 (0, 0.012) 0.01 (0, 0.021) 0.005 (0, 0.013)
Niraparib count 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
time 23 (19, 33) 23 (19, 33) 23 (19, 33) 23 (19, 33) 23 (19, 33) 23 (19, 33) 23 (19, 33) 23 (19, 33)
n 35 (29, 40) 9 (7, 9) 19 (13, 38) 20 (15, 21) 22 (15, 26) 10 (8, 20) 6 (6, 16) 10 (9, 13)
post_p 0.65 (0.64, 0.73) 0.64 (0.58, 0.64) 0.64 (0.61, 0.69) 0.64 (0.62, 0.67) 0.67 (0.63, 0.82) 0.58 (0.56, 0.62) 0.57 (0.56, 0.58) 0.69 (0.62, 0.72)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.016 (0.013, 0.02) 0 (0, 0.019) 0.01 (0.002, 0.017) 0.005 (0.001, 0.012) 0.007 (0.006, 0.015) 0.011 (0.009, 0.014) 0.016 (0.013, 0.017) 0.008 (0.007, 0.012)
TP53- Hormone_therapies count 8 8 8 8
time 20 (15, 25) 20 (15, 25) 20 (15, 25) 20 (15, 25)
n 55 (47, 65) 10 (6, 14) 8 (4, 16) 7 (1, 11)
post_p 0.79 (0.76, 0.9) 0.66 (0.62, 0.85) 0.66 (0.62, 0.77) 0.63 (0.61, 0.77)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.012 (0.007, 0.015) 0 (0, 0.01) 0 (0, 0.001) 0 (0, 0.004)
Taxel_therapies count 104 104 104 104
time 36 (20, 54) 36 (20, 54) 36 (20, 54) 36 (20, 54)
n 75 (38, 154) 26 (14, 48) 16 (6, 42) 16 (6, 31)
post_p 0.77 (0.71, 0.95) 0.86 (0.72, 0.98) 0.75 (0.61, 0.89) 0.76 (0.64, 0.94)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.015 (0.01, 0.019) 0.007 (0, 0.012) 0.01 (0, 0.017) 0.005 (0, 0.012)
Niraparib count 11 11 11 11
time 24 (12, 38) 24 (12, 38) 24 (12, 38) 24 (12, 38)
n 41 (26, 98) 9 (7, 25) 19 (13, 29) 15 (7, 23)
post_p 0.76 (0.7, 0.83) 0.69 (0.6, 0.75) 0.74 (0.71, 0.91) 0.76 (0.66, 0.84)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.009 (0, 0.015) 0 (0, 0.011) 0.008 (0, 0.015) 0.01 (0, 0.017)
TP53+ Hormone_therapies count 7 7 7 7
time 34 (24, 43) 34 (24, 43) 34 (24, 43) 34 (24, 43)
n 44 (24, 75) 33 (8, 61) 9 (7, 16) 9 (5, 21)
post_p 0.8 (0.74, 0.91) 0.76 (0.63, 0.9) 0.69 (0.65, 0.78) 0.73 (0.61, 0.83)
r_prob 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.013 (0.009, 0.017) 0.012 (0.006, 0.013) 0.012 (0, 0.017) 0.009 (0, 0.014)
Taxel_therapies count 109 109 109 109
time 35 (21, 55) 35 (21, 55) 35 (21, 55) 35 (21, 55)
n 49 (26, 97) 38 (24, 74) 10 (5, 24) 10 (5, 24)
post_p 0.77 (0.71, 0.9) 0.86 (0.74, 0.99) 0.72 (0.62, 0.88) 0.74 (0.61, 0.92)
r_prob 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.015 (0.009, 0.021) 0.008 (0.003, 0.011) 0.009 (0, 0.018) 0.006 (0, 0.011)
Niraparib count 7 7 7 7
time 44 (16, 50) 44 (16, 50) 44 (16, 50) 44 (16, 50)
n 43 (18, 90) 20 (14, 31) 19 (11, 39) 11 (9, 16)
post_p 0.73 (0.7, 0.9) 0.76 (0.74, 0.87) 0.76 (0.72, 0.87) 0.73 (0.62, 0.79)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.013 (0, 0.018) 0.01 (0.006, 0.014) 0.013 (0, 0.016) 0.01 (0, 0.019)
DRD+ Hormone_therapies count 4 4 4 4
time 54 (45, 57) 54 (45, 57) 54 (45, 57) 54 (45, 57)
n 20 (9, 43) 10 (8, 32) 28 (12, 34) 19 (11, 27)
post_p 0.73 (0.71, 0.73) 0.8 (0.74, 0.9) 0.79 (0.66, 0.82) 0.76 (0.7, 0.82)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.017 (0.012, 0.021) 0.015 (0.013, 0.018) 0.013 (0.011, 0.014) 0.012 (0.009, 0.014)
Taxel_therapies count 61 61 61 61
time 43 (28, 55) 43 (28, 55) 43 (28, 55) 43 (28, 55)
n 21 (8, 36) 20 (8, 34) 17 (7, 27) 13 (7, 28)
post_p 0.76 (0.7, 0.92) 0.85 (0.73, 0.96) 0.73 (0.62, 0.88) 0.76 (0.62, 0.93)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.013 (0.005, 0.018) 0.007 (0, 0.012) 0.011 (0, 0.018) 0.007 (0, 0.013)
Niraparib count 6 6 6 6
time 34 (21, 56) 34 (21, 56) 34 (21, 56) 34 (21, 56)
n 36 (14, 46) 29 (17, 35) 22 (12, 47) 18 (11, 24)
post_p 0.75 (0.72, 0.81) 0.74 (0.71, 0.87) 0.84 (0.74, 0.92) 0.73 (0.71, 0.84)
r_prob 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.013 (0.011, 0.019) 0.011 (0.006, 0.018) 0.014 (0.006, 0.02) 0.011 (0, 0.019)
TEfus+ Hormone_therapies count 1 1 1 1
time 22 (22, 22) 22 (22, 22) 22 (22, 22) 22 (22, 22)
n 12 (12, 12) 23 (23, 23) 6 (6, 6) 19 (19, 19)
post_p 0.74 (0.74, 0.74) 0.75 (0.75, 0.75) 0.64 (0.64, 0.64) 0.71 (0.71, 0.71)
r_prob 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.007 (0.007, 0.007)
Taxel_therapies count 338 338 338 338
time 38 (22, 55) 38 (22, 55) 38 (22, 55) 38 (22, 55)
n 32 (17, 54) 50 (27, 87) 22 (7, 42) 15 (6, 31)
post_p 0.83 (0.71, 0.98) 0.86 (0.73, 0.99) 0.77 (0.66, 0.94) 0.73 (0.62, 0.91)
r_prob 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.008 (0.003, 0.013) 0.009 (0.004, 0.012) 0.007 (0, 0.012) 0.007 (0, 0.013)
Niraparib count 3 3 3 3
time 22 (17, 29) 22 (17, 29) 22 (17, 29) 22 (17, 29)
n 10 (9, 16) 21 (17, 36) 22 (17, 27) 10 (8, 12)
post_p 0.86 (0.67, 0.87) 0.77 (0.72, 0.85) 0.78 (0.77, 0.79) 0.71 (0.64, 0.78)
r_prob 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0 (0, 0.007) 0.008 (0.002, 0.011) 0.014 (0.009, 0.014) 0 (0, 0.01)
Futility:
signature treatment var — –+ -+- -++ +– +-+ ++- +++
all Hormone_therapies count 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78
time 31 (15, 56) 31 (15, 56) 31 (15, 56) 31 (15, 56) 31 (15, 56) 31 (15, 56) 31 (15, 56) 31 (15, 56)
n 42 (22, 108) 12 (5, 29) 28 (10, 62) 17 (4, 43) 10 (3, 27) 10 (3, 25) 6 (2, 19) 8 (2, 18)
post_p 0.29 (0.08, 0.49) 0.26 (0.07, 0.46) 0.36 (0.11, 0.48) 0.26 (0.07, 0.44) 0.39 (0.22, 0.49) 0.31 (0.16, 0.48) 0.38 (0.18, 0.48) 0.37 (0.17, 0.49)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.022 (0.017, 0.03) 0.026 (0.016, 0.05) 0.022 (0.015, 0.045) 0.022 (0.014, 0.036) 0.024 (0.012, 0.037) 0.022 (0.01, 0.038) 0.025 (0.014, 0.096) 0.021 (0, 0.043)
Taxel_therapies count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
time 8 (6, 11) 8 (6, 11) 8 (6, 11) 8 (6, 11) 8 (6, 11) 8 (6, 11) 8 (6, 11) 8 (6, 11)
n 14 (11, 23) 8 (6, 10) 20 (18, 21) 14 (12, 14) 1 (0, 2) 1 (0, 4) 2 (0, 2) 1 (0, 4)
post_p 0.4 (0.22, 0.45) 0.47 (0.36, 0.5) 0.4 (0.29, 0.47) 0.42 (0.34, 0.44) 0.43 (0.32, 0.46) 0.46 (0.44, 0.47) 0.41 (0.36, 0.48) 0.48 (0.42, 0.5)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.017 (0.009, 0.038) 0.018 (0, 0.029) 0.02 (0.004, 0.038) 0.005 (0, 0.015) 0 (0, 0.052) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
Niraparib count 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70
time 34 (19, 56) 34 (19, 56) 34 (19, 56) 34 (19, 56) 34 (19, 56) 34 (19, 56) 34 (19, 56) 34 (19, 56)
n 46 (14, 91) 10 (4, 23) 24 (7, 61) 14 (5, 39) 16 (8, 33) 14 (9, 29) 13 (6, 27) 13 (6, 21)
post_p 0.34 (0.1, 0.45) 0.34 (0.13, 0.47) 0.35 (0.2, 0.47) 0.27 (0.08, 0.44) 0.37 (0.14, 0.47) 0.27 (0.06, 0.44) 0.35 (0.14, 0.47) 0.27 (0.07, 0.47)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.022 (0.017, 0.031) 0.025 (0.013, 0.041) 0.023 (0.017, 0.036) 0.024 (0.014, 0.043) 0.024 (0.015, 0.035) 0.024 (0.013, 0.037) 0.026 (0.017, 0.041) 0.023 (0.014, 0.046)
TP53- Hormone_therapies count 232 232 232 232
time 31 (18, 54) 31 (18, 54) 31 (18, 54) 31 (18, 54)
n 49 (25, 130) 14 (6, 36) 12 (4, 34) 11 (4, 28)
post_p 0.31 (0.08, 0.48) 0.33 (0.12, 0.47) 0.38 (0.19, 0.48) 0.35 (0.12, 0.47)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.021 (0.017, 0.028) 0.022 (0.014, 0.037) 0.023 (0.015, 0.048) 0.022 (0.014, 0.051)
Taxel_therapies count 30 30 30 30
time 24 (16, 43) 24 (16, 43) 24 (16, 43) 24 (16, 43)
n 47 (33, 110) 16 (7, 29) 7 (3, 15) 10 (5, 28)
post_p 0.31 (0.03, 0.48) 0.4 (0.22, 0.49) 0.34 (0.24, 0.46) 0.42 (0.29, 0.47)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.021 (0.015, 0.029) 0.017 (0.011, 0.023) 0.025 (0.015, 0.095) 0.016 (0, 0.029)
Niraparib count 234 234 234 234
time 30 (18, 51) 30 (18, 51) 30 (18, 51) 30 (18, 51)
n 44 (15, 110) 12 (5, 30) 17 (8, 36) 17 (9, 33)
post_p 0.35 (0.11, 0.48) 0.34 (0.13, 0.48) 0.35 (0.13, 0.48) 0.34 (0.12, 0.47)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.021 (0.015, 0.032) 0.022 (0.013, 0.04) 0.023 (0.017, 0.038) 0.021 (0.014, 0.035)
TP53+ Hormone_therapies count 198 198 198 198
time 36 (24, 55) 36 (24, 55) 36 (24, 55) 36 (24, 55)
n 37 (15, 81) 22 (10, 55) 11 (4, 24) 10 (4, 25)
post_p 0.35 (0.08, 0.47) 0.29 (0.08, 0.46) 0.38 (0.19, 0.48) 0.33 (0.1, 0.48)
r_prob 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.022 (0.016, 0.032) 0.021 (0.014, 0.032) 0.024 (0.016, 0.044) 0.021 (0.014, 0.044)
Taxel_therapies count 23 23 23 23
time 20 (13, 30) 20 (13, 30) 20 (13, 30) 20 (13, 30)
n 29 (18, 48) 31 (15, 45) 4 (2, 8) 6 (3, 12)
post_p 0.32 (0.14, 0.45) 0.44 (0.27, 0.48) 0.29 (0.17, 0.48) 0.37 (0.28, 0.49)
r_prob 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.021 (0.017, 0.026) 0.012 (0.008, 0.02) 0.049 (0, 0.134) 0.019 (0.001, 0.053)
Niraparib count 210 210 210 210
time 33 (23, 51) 33 (23, 51) 33 (23, 51) 33 (23, 51)
n 28 (11, 67) 19 (8, 42) 14 (7, 29) 14 (8, 25)
post_p 0.36 (0.14, 0.48) 0.28 (0.09, 0.45) 0.38 (0.17, 0.47) 0.33 (0.1, 0.47)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.022 (0.016, 0.032) 0.021 (0.014, 0.035) 0.024 (0.015, 0.037) 0.022 (0.014, 0.036)
DRD+ Hormone_therapies count 119 119 119 119
time 46 (33, 56) 46 (33, 56) 46 (33, 56) 46 (33, 56)
n 19 (7, 36) 16 (5, 38) 15 (5, 28) 12 (5, 30)
post_p 0.39 (0.18, 0.49) 0.24 (0.08, 0.46) 0.39 (0.17, 0.48) 0.31 (0.07, 0.48)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.023 (0.016, 0.034) 0.023 (0.016, 0.038) 0.024 (0.017, 0.037) 0.022 (0.014, 0.038)
Taxel_therapies count 11 11 11 11
time 40 (29, 49) 40 (29, 49) 40 (29, 49) 40 (29, 49)
n 17 (6, 31) 18 (8, 30) 12 (8, 23) 9 (5, 25)
post_p 0.26 (0.06, 0.44) 0.43 (0.29, 0.49) 0.44 (0.23, 0.47) 0.47 (0.36, 0.5)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.023 (0.02, 0.037) 0.017 (0.014, 0.021) 0.017 (0.014, 0.035) 0.013 (0.009, 0.021)
Niraparib count 202 202 202 202
time 34 (21, 54) 34 (21, 54) 34 (21, 54) 34 (21, 54)
n 19 (9, 38) 17 (10, 35) 15 (7, 32) 14 (8, 25)
post_p 0.37 (0.13, 0.48) 0.32 (0.12, 0.47) 0.39 (0.17, 0.48) 0.33 (0.14, 0.46)
r_prob 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.023 (0.015, 0.034) 0.022 (0.014, 0.034) 0.024 (0.016, 0.037) 0.021 (0.014, 0.034)
TEfus+ Hormone_therapies count 280 280 280 280
time 40 (26, 56) 40 (26, 56) 40 (26, 56) 40 (26, 56)
n 17 (7, 40) 25 (11, 59) 14 (4, 33) 11 (4, 28)
post_p 0.36 (0.1, 0.48) 0.28 (0.06, 0.47) 0.3 (0.1, 0.48) 0.35 (0.13, 0.48)
r_prob 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.021 (0.014, 0.037) 0.02 (0.015, 0.03) 0.023 (0.014, 0.04) 0.022 (0.014, 0.044)
Taxel_therapies count 1 1 1 1
time 14 (14, 14) 14 (14, 14) 14 (14, 14) 14 (14, 14)
n 14 (14, 14) 27 (27, 27) 6 (6, 6) 3 (3, 3)
post_p 0.31 (0.31, 0.31) 0.46 (0.46, 0.46) 0.49 (0.49, 0.49) 0.48 (0.48, 0.48)
r_prob 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.013 (0.013, 0.013) 0.018 (0.018, 0.018) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
Niraparib count 307 307 307 307
time 35 (21, 54) 35 (21, 54) 35 (21, 54) 35 (21, 54)
n 13 (5, 35) 21 (8, 49) 18 (10, 34) 14 (8, 27)
post_p 0.32 (0.1, 0.48) 0.32 (0.08, 0.46) 0.31 (0.09, 0.47) 0.33 (0.11, 0.48)
r_prob 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.022 (0.014, 0.038) 0.02 (0.013, 0.038) 0.022 (0.015, 0.033) 0.021 (0.014, 0.035)